AZERBAIJAN-ARMENIA COMPLETE CONFLICT ANALYSIS:-
SITUATION REPORT, MONDAY MORNING 1100 HOURS BAKU TIME (1200 Hours PST)
CONTEXT:
The Republic of Armenia is a mainly christian country located in the Caucasus bordered by Turkey, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Iran.
#Armenia #Azerbaijan
The Republic of Azerbaijan is a mainly muslim country in the Caucasus and is bordered by the Caspian Sea, Russia, Iran, Turkey, Georgia and Armenia.
Nagorno-Karabakh is an Armenian occupied territory inside Azerbaijan and is a UN recognised Azerbaijani conclave.
Armenia has occupied the territory through its Armed forces since late 20th century and installed a puppet government, the Republic of Artsakh, who claim independence. The territory is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan. Ever since, Armenia and Azerbaijan
have fought a low-intensity and small-level conflict over the Line of Contact between Azeri and Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh as well as on the Armenian-Azerbaijan border.
SEQUENCE OF EVENTS:
Starting in early September 2020, the low intensity clashes at the borders started getting more frequent and deadly. Both sides suffered low levels of military casualties. Consequently, the intensity of the military involvement increased.
On 26 September, there were suspicions of impending military moves on both sides. On 27 September, Armenia launched a heavy assault on Azerbaijani forces on both the LOC and the border and may have also hit Azerbaijani civilian populations.
In the early morning hours of Sunday, 28 September the Azerbaijani defence staff declared a “blitz counteroffensive” across the entire front with Armenia and subsequently used massive military might including large number of tanks, artillery, rockets, missiles, aircraft and
drones to crush the unprepared Armenian soldiers and gain tactical superiority in the region. In this counteroffensive, Azerbaijan liberated at least 10 villages from Armenian control inside Nagorno-Karabakh.
Subsequently, Nagorno-Karabakh region’s Armenian puppet government
declared martial law and put curfews in place.
After that, Armenia also declared martial law, put in place curfews, ordered full military mobilisation, called up all reservists under the age of 55 and begun preparing for all out war. Significant amounts of young men are also
volunteering to serve in the army. Armenia’s PM started using the word “war” in official correspondence.
Azerbaijan, reacting to this, also declared martial law in the country and ordered full military mobilisation.
Sensing the threat, the Azerbaijani parliament formally declared war. Fighting on the Azeri-Armenian border front continued throughout the day involving heavy military power on both sides.
Tank battles also ensued throughout the day.
Local sources also reported intense artillery shelling in Tartar between Azerbaijan and Armenia armies. Reportedly Armenian artillery units were forced to retreat as Azerbaijani military units use long-range artillery systems to hit targets.
Both countries accuse each other of “deliberately targeting civilian populations”.
During last night, clashes were subdued but continued in various parts of the LOC and border.
Late last night, the Azerbaijani Army and special forces captured and placed its flag on the strategically vital Murov Mountain. Also, the Armenia-Karabakh main highway has been taken under Azerbaijani control this cutting off any chance of reinforcements.
Azerbaijani and Armenian forces heavy shelling and rocket fire also went on in the vicinity of Artsakh. The Artsakh Defense Army has confirmed that they are currently engaging in heavy battles with Azerbaijani Armed Forces.
During the night, fighting continued with various intensity. Also, TOS heavy artillery MLR systems as well as thermobaric bombs were used. Early today morning, Azerbaijan resumed the offensive using artillery, armored vehicles and tanks.
Fighting continues as of this moment with early morning briefings being given to leaders of both countries by their respective militaries. The level of fighting is expected to increase today with high chances of the conflict escalating.
Azerbaijan has also closed all airports and Armenia is expected to do the same. Foreign Ministers of both countries are also engaging in aggressive diplomacy, talking to allies and world powers.
ALLIES AND FOREIGN SUPPORT:
Azerbaijan is getting an immense amount of support from Turkey, which is using drones and F-16s from Turkey to aid Azerbaijani military advances.
Turkish drones are being used extensively.
Bayraktar TB2 UCAVs are using MAM-L Smart Munitions over Armenian positions, striking at least four 9K33 Osa and three 9K35 Strela-10 mobile surface-to-air missile systems.
Turkey is also rerouting guerrilla fighters from Syria to help the Azerbaijanis.
Pakistan has also announced support for Azerbaijan. Israel also supports Azerbaijan.
Armenia is supported by Russia and Iran. Iran is also sending military equipment to Armenia, as well as militant groups.
The United States has issued calls to deescalate but Trump wouldn’t want to get in this mess with the election so close so US military intervention is off the cards provided Russia does not interfere militarily.
MILITARY QUANTITATIVE EQUIPMENT:
Azerbaijan ?? has 426,000 military personnel, 29 combat aircraft, 17 attack helicopters, 570 tanks, 1451 armoured fighting vehicles, 414 artillery guns, 162 rocket projectors and a 2.8 billion dollar defence budget.
Armenia ?? has 245,000 military personnel, 9 combat aircraft, 20 attack helicopters, 110 tanks, 748 armoured fighting vehicles, 188 artillery guns, 68 rocket projectors and a 1.3 billion dollar defence budget.
LOSSES:
Till now Azerbaijan has lost around 33 tanks (T-72A/72AV/72 Aslan) and IFVs/AFVs (BMP-2 and BTR-82A), 27 UAVs, 4 helicopters (Mi-8/17)
Till now Armenia has lost around 22 tanks (T-72s) and IFVs/AFVs (BMP-1/2), 15 air defence systems (9K35 Strela-10 and 9K33 Osa), 18 UAVs, 8 artillery installations, 7 trucks and 550 soldiers with two strategic locations hit by airstrike (1 ammunition depot and 1 military base)
TACTICAL AND STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES:
The Azerbaijani military is engaging in offensives into the Nagorno-Karabakh region to liberate it, while the Armenian forces there are on the defensive. At the Armenian-Azerbaijani borders there is a military strategy of “holding the line”
at place, while simultaneously inflicting as much damage as possible on the enemy. Armenia is also engaging in counteroffensives at the border to coerce Azerbaijan to stop the offensive into Nagorno-Karabakh.
Strategically, Azerbaijan wishes to liberate the Nagorno-Karabakh region while enjoying a decisive military defeat of Armenia while Armneia whished to keep the quo intact.
