End of the year gifts from the CDC! The new case surveillance file is out tracking through 12/15. It shows 13.5 million cases and here are the key stats.
Chart 1: Overall CFR seems to have dropped below 1%
(note: that’s the CFR! The IFR will be significantly lower)
1/
Rate of hospitalization for #COVID19 is now in high seasonal influenza levels. 2017-18 season saw about a 3% hospitalization rate. That’s right where we are. Hosp to death ratio is still much higher than flu of course but down 2/3rds from what it was in the spring
2/
If we were to track things properly and use lab-confirmed tests with a date of onset illness there would be only 77K COVID deaths. An additional 61K deaths have a lab-confirmed result but no onset date. Another 32K deaths have no hospitalization and 42K deaths have little info
More to follow. Download your own massive version here:
https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/COVID-19-Case-Surveillance-Public-Use-Data/vbim-akqf