One of the weaknesses of collective action in #Ugandan elections is how, reflecting the weakness of political parties, the dynamic MP races overshadow the presidential race and its peculiarities as all parties endorse the result of MP races but contest that of president.
Even now, after a particularly violent pre-election period FDC and even NUP are reporting wins and losses for their MP candidates while attempting to separate this process from that of the election of president as a political reality and statistical question.
FDC has asked how YK Museveni can lose some of his trusted lieutenants but win in the same constituencies with reportedly wide margins. This argument however is not extended to the legality of opposition wins in the same areas.
The problem that casts a long shadow for the Opposition is the fact that they have never presented a Unity Candidate around which to sharpen the question of the transmission of presidential results. This remain something of a conjuring act for the Electoral Commission.
Even then as results are announced, opposition parties have their most committed actors focused on their own local races, committed to getting a result out of the MP race, LC V race and others. The presidential race is left to the lottery of ambiguity of its own.
The NRM does not have the problem of a “single candidate” and is shielded from the chaos of the MP races because NRM incumbents who lose in large numbers ultimately lose more to intra-NRM competition than to Opposition candidates – leaving YK Museveni with a different prob.
Over the last three terms, the newly elected parliament with all its components ( NRM newcomers, independents, opposition candidates) act like the joint opposition, aligning their interests against the Executive mostly as a bargain for more benefits and salaries.
This costs the taxpayer money of course. Apart from admonish the House, YK Museveni has largely allowed them to increase their pay and benefits, buying him time and post-election legitimacy as business returns to its default settings and rituals.
This inflationary politics sits at odds with the presidential race but is wedded to it because the race for president is populism more than anything else. Even now, one can point out that voters are faced with a young populist versus an aging one.
When the internet is restored – neo-nationalists allied to the NRM will pick up these points about the legitimacy of MP results versus presidential ones to argue how free and fair the process MUST be ( after all the Opposition endorses their wins in the same election).
The other tragedies, the beatings, security blanket etc will start to recede. Finally, it must be pointed out that despite the pandemic, very little effort was taken by political actors on all sides to postpone the election.
I wrote about this essential violence ( the addiction to the electoral process no matter the disagreements over quality) here