With markets closed and a 🔥hot stove🔥 in the spot market, I think it's time for a thread of my choicest #uranium hot takes. Individual takes nested below. I'm bored today, so feel free to tell me why I'm wrong. To be clear, I'm not subtweeting anyone in specific here.
#1: initial cores use 2x the #uranium of a reload, not 3x. I've looked at initial core designs, and total input uranium is only about 2x of a reload batch. The average enrichment is lower than a reload. Oversimplified, but accurate. Don't keep repeating this misconception.
#2: I make this typo sometimes too, but its #U3O8, not U308. Yellowcake is roughly triuranium octoxide (varies a bit depending on processing), which is 3 "U" atoms to 8 "O". I don't know what isotope the number 308 would be, but it's probably on the island of stability.
#3: broker prices for UF6 and EUP are usually just formulaic: $/kgU UF6 = $/lb U3O8 * 2.61286 + $/kgU conv. $/kgU EUP = # of kgU UF6 * $/kgU + # of SWU * $/SWU, at chosen product (4.95%) and tails assays (0.15%?). Play around with this EUP calculator:
#4: let's talk about those WNA uranium projections. The WNA mid scenario might end up being correct, but what are the biases/unknowns? @brandon_munro chaired that working group and he speaks with amazing clarity on the fuel cycle, so I have more faith than I normally would.
#5: speaking of working groups, quit focusing on the Nuclear Fuel Working Group (NFWG). It might bring much-needed assistance to US #uranium producers (and maybe converters & enrichers, too!), but outside of the equity space I don't think this will have major near-term impacts.
#6: the largest single-month total on the uranium futures exchange is 50,000 pounds. The standard minimum size for a single transaction in physical uranium is 100,000 pounds. Draw your own conclusions, I guess.
#7: know what the pricing *indicators* are and what they're for. This is a long discussion, and one I don't want to make eighteen tweets about today. The spot, broker spot, and (especially) the long-term indicator all fill different niches. Those niches are not always obvious.
#8: finally, if you've read this thread and want to ask any technical or nontechnical nuclear-related questions or call me exciting names, comment below. I'll tag in some folks as necessary because some of my knowledge is a bit out of date.
