The outstanding response of Irish people is routinely shit on by a minority, who use emotionally-charged ignorance, in place of facts. The reality here is your dedication to hand-washing and social distancing, limited the devastation to little beyond a severe Irish flu season:
A fundamental issue is ignorance. People see 1,714 covid19 deaths and think that must be a big number, relative to flu season deaths. 200-500 die in a mild flu season, sure, but well over 1,000 die in severe flu seasons in Ireland, and some years were desperately bad.
Covid19, 2020: Nursing Home deaths: 1,030 Hospitalised: 3,282 ICU admitted: 417 Healthcare worker infections: 8,147 Children deaths: 0 Flu season 2017/18: Nursing Home deaths: 900 Hospitalised: 4,713 ICU admitted: 191 Healthcare worker infections: 19,850 Children deaths: 3
Because doctors rarely cite Influenza on death certs, infection rate and mortality burden associated with influenza is estimated. FluMOMO estimate - 1,125 Estimation of flu infection in HCW: https://t.co/JQObNt4DMw Hospitalisation/ICU for flu 2017/18:
hse.ie/eng/health/imm…
hpsc.ie/a-z/respirator…
A number of years (e.g. 1990, 2000, 2016, 2018) have seen over 1,000 deaths in flu season. Going farther back, 1999/00 was a devastating season, which I'll explore in more depth. 2015/16 flu season, "over 1,000 deaths" - source Dr. Kevin Kelleher, HSE
rte.ie/news/2017/1221…
Influenza/Pneumonia deaths by year, per CSO: 2000: 2,518 2014: 1,032 2016: 1,127 2017/18 flu season was devastating in Ireland/Europe (152,000 deaths) but 1999/2000's H3N2 flu epidemic, for those with longer memories, was horrific. CSO report, page 86 -
cso.ie/en/media/csoie…
Hospitals overwhelmed across parts of the US and Europe as we headed into the new millennium. Cases per million in Ireland '99/00 were well over 4,000 with estimates of 6,500 (it's 5,100 for covid19). Contemporaneous report from the NYT here:
nytimes.com/2000/01/08/us/…
On a personal level, I was dying a dose in early 2000 but, at the time, I put that down to an ungodly amount of double vodkas and shots of aftershock on New Years Eve🤣 It's likely that 1999/2000 flu season saw as many Irish influenza-related deaths as covid19 deaths in 2020.
For people with longer memories, 1989/90 was even worse than both 1999/00 and 2017/18. 26,000 died of flu in UK in 1990, while 4,113 died in Ireland of "pneumonia and other respiratory disease", suggesting a 1990 influenza mortality burden comparable, or in excess of, covid19.
We (people) protected nursing homes & HCW from covid19 so well: Rates in both settings are in line with severe flu season. It's a logical fallacy that government's alone protect institutions in a pandemic. Society protects them most, by keeping community infection low.
If society acts the bollox, infection runs rampant in community, you end up with far more deaths, even in Fort Knox-level-protected institutions. Society is the preeminent first line of defence; because little infection in community, means little introduction to institutions.
The type of critics who now run around twitter screaming "scandal!", from their villa in Portugal, didn't previously care about flu deaths of the elderly in Irish nursing homes, either. Maybe it's more profitable to slag Ireland off in 2020 than it was in previous years.
Of course, someone will retrospectively 100% blame Haughey/O'Malley and Bertie/Harney for huge 1990 & 2000 Influenza death tolls (both ~ as 2020). But you're missing my point if you think flu season deaths are *all* the politicians fault. Some, but they're more our fault.
We've now shown what is possible by collective hand hygiene & good respiratory habits. We've shown as a country we can face down a pandemic. Apply these lessons going forward, we'll save (or slightly extend) thousands of lives in the future. We should obviously do this.
It's also going to be interesting to see Excess Mortality for the entire year. The likes of H1N1, H3N2 can coexist, even in a typical flu season, one usually establishes dominance. Covid19's dominance, allied to increased hand-washing, might see far fewer flu deaths.
I write these threads because Irish people sacrificed so much this year, physically and mentally. It's nauseating when people shit all over those sacrifices, by making out they were for nothing, that it's all a disaster. You all did well. Your sacrifices saved so many lives.
Literally impossible to hold the covid19 death toll near-or-below the 1999/2000 flu epidemic death toll, by people taking the piss. Covid19 is far worse than flu. We limited the damage by an inspiring rearguard effort of Irish people caring for each other ☘️
