#Covid19 numbers in Germany have been rising steadily for weeks (and recently particularly here in Berlin) and I get a lot of people/some media asking: So what? It’s just infections not hospitalizations or deaths, it’s a casedemic, yadda yadda yadda. So why even look at numbers?
1. It’s new. We’re still just starting to understand what havoc the virus can wreak in the body, incl. long-term effects in young, healthy people. A rise in cases is concerning. Full stop.
2. It’s infectious. No-one I know looks at the case numbers alone to get a clear, in-depth picture of what is happening. But case numbers are the most basic way of tracking spread and that we can track the virus better now than in spring is a huge advantage.
3. Deaths will come. We’ve seen this again and again. We're seeing it now. Deaths in Europe were up 27% last week. A rise in deaths will follow a rise in cases as sure as the clap of thunder follows lightning. Pretending it won’t, was callous in March, it's evil now.
How much will deaths rise? That depends on how fast and wide the virus spreads into the most vulnerable populations before case numbers are reduced, how much better we have gotten at treating patients and other factors.
But it sure as hell would be less deaths if we would concentrate on doing what we can to minimize the spread instead of rehashing arguments that can easily be resolved by looking across our borders or a few months into the past.
