Thread on why the Ukraine 2014 Euromaidan Revolution is probably going to end up the defining event of the century
Starting around the turn of the millennium, a relatively small group of bloggers began popularizing the concept of "fifth-generation warfare". The idea was that future conflicts would be more "infowar" than physical war, and battles would be not over canals and valleys but minds
Roughly speaking the theorized generations of warfare break down like this 1GW: Armies charging at each other on a field 2GW: Specialized warfare with artillery, trenches, etc 3GW: Rapid tactical maneuvers, shock and awe, famously pioneered by the German WWII Blitzkrieg
4GW: Guerilla insurgency, proxy wars, terror 5GW: Psychological warfare, cyberwarfare, lawfare, control over information networks The way to think about this is that each new "generation" of warfare is a way to fight smarter, not harder.
The goal is to prevent the enemy from effectively organizing operations at the next level below. So 3GW sabotages 2GW through unpredictability, 4GW sabotages effective 3GW by creating an invisible enemy like in 'Nam, 5GW sabotages 4GW by preventing formation of guerilla proxies
Predictions made about 5GW were that you could be conquered entirely by opposing power without even seeing them or realizing who they were, and that the war could be so abstracted it would ultimately be decided with only a single shot.
Both of these came true in Ukraine 2014. A single day of violence (Feb 20) in which sniper fire sparked an altercation that killed 42 people is widely seen as the pivotal event that allowed the victory of the revolution. Who the snipers were, who hired them, is still very unclear
Ukraine is a highly divided, arguably incoherent country. Its borders were greatly extended to the East by Lenin, who assimilated a productive industrial region into it so it could be a self sustaining SSR. So while the West half is Ukranian, the East is essentially just Russia.
Voting tends to break down along these ethnic lines. When a Western Ukrainian politican gets into office he usually favors the West in geopolitics, and when a politician from the Russian East gets in, he supports closer ties to Russia.
In 2004, the Ukrainians elected the pro-Russian president Yanukovych, who was then ousted in the US-funded "Orange Revolution". In theory these were protests against "corruption" but its widely acknowledged that Ukraine was just as corrupt (very) under the next guy
In 2010, the Ukrainians decided to elect Yanukovych again. In November 2013 he rejected an agreement to join the EU and instead signed an economic agreement with Russia, which is when the "revolutionary unrest" against him began to emerge for the second time.
Russia and their sympathetic analysts use the term "Color Revolution" to refer to a wave of CIA-backed Eastern European revolutions that started in 2000, but its just a slight variation on a strategy the CIA has successfully been doing almost since its founding.
The Iran 1953 coup is the prototypical example - you can read the CIA's docs online and see how it was planned from A to B. They paid criminal hooligans to riot for US while also paying other ppl to dress as communists and act weird to discredit the left.
The modern "color revolutionary" strategy is to organize an MLK-style group of "peaceful protestors" to march for justice, while also organizing a violent force that stops just short of being an armed paramilitary (ie throwing rocks, committing arson, firebombings, etc)
When the security forces inevitably crack down on the insurrectionists, the US can muddy the waters and present the propaganda image of an authoritarian government massacring innocent protestors. This will then be used to convince military leadership to support regime change
Tiananmen Square is one famous example of this. While the regime change strategy to replace the CCP with a neolib democracy led by Zhao Ziyang failed, you can see how effective the narrative is given how nearly everyone in the West still believes it.
Ukraine 2014 was the first 5GW and not just a CIA Color Revolution like 2004, only bc this time the enemy was equipped to fight back. RAND Corp describes a "firehose" of Russian infowar counter-assault that began in response (similar to what the CIAs M.O. always has been)
The Russians have the bomb now! For the first time the CIA has to deal with someone throwing their strategy of mass decentralized black propaganda back at them. In the old Cold War we just needed to counter the Cominform and their boring Marxist doctrines - not so anymore
So the hysteria around Kremlin propaganda in 2016 seems really dumb, but it makes more sense when you realize that it was probably more like the equivalent of building cognitive nuclear fallout shelters against a new 5GW scenario than describing anything immediately going on.
At the time faced with the bewildering simultaneous rise of the alt-right and Trump, "the Russians are bringing 5GW here! Man the harpoons!" might have been what everyone in the CIA was seriously thinking, though the evidence for this narrative ofc now turns out to be limited.
Trumps entire presidency has been dominated by reactions like: hes "soft on Putin", he heralds a rise in "illiberalism" around the world, hes emboldening dangerous paramilitaries, the internet needs to censored to "save democracy"... All more 5GW paranoia
Oh and incidentally Biden himself seems to have played a major hands-on role in the Ukraine coup, presumably back when he was more mentally competent, Infamously of course he ended up getting his fuckup son a lucrative no-show job out of it.
There will not be an 1860s or 1930s style civil war in America. Imo there will probably be civil 5GW. In fact we are already well into it. The Right has finally caught on that the BLM/antifa alliance exactly parallels CIA Color Revolution strategies and is funded by the same ppl
ICE, DHS, and some regional police forces seem to be able to serve as Trump-loyal paramilitaries in a 4GW, which is why the libs are so focused on abolishing them, as well as using cyberattacks and attempting to block the Right from organizing online
Qan0n is a similar phenomenon as well. Imo it is a very clever 5GW strategy from the Right for the reasons I said here, which is ofc why it terrifies libs.
The Soros thing is not a meme either,
Most of the discussions in these documents consist of Soros chatting with US diplomats and Ukrainian leaders about which sectors of Ukrainian civil service need to be purged of influence from the old regime. This process was called "lustration" .
Disturbingly, a lot of this was just arbitrarily targeted at Russian ethnics. The Russian language was banned in all official settings, as were all Russian language films, books, TV, etc. as an intense 5GW Berlin Wall policy preventing any propaganda from getting in.
Dems planning to color revolution Trump here in the US seem to be pursuing the idea of lustration as well (illustrated here by an excerpt from the Transition Integrity Project's "war game")
Another dark element in the Ukraine 2014 coup (and one heavily emphasized by Russian propaganda) is the support from Ukranian Nazis. Far right parties Svodoba and Right Sector in particular had a critical role in the Euromaidan uprising and formation of the new govt.
Also the neo-Nazi paramilitary Azov Battalion was formally incorporated into Ukraine's National Guard to fight the War in Donbass. The US, Canada, and Israel were sending arms to them until 2018, when someone pointed out that this was not a great look
So you have the World's Most Infamous International Jew, State Department radlibs, and neo-Nazis all marching hand in hand - a strange coalition. Its also interesting to note the parallel of the simultaneous rise of neo-Nazism in the US and one can wonder if this is related.
On top of the 5GW threat of Russian propaganda, imo another reason theres been hysteria around this is bc the CIAs actions in Ukraine arent really... defensible, yet the battle lines here are becoming the basis for the New Cold War between the "free and unfree world"
So anyone talking about Soros & blahblah needs to be smeared as "mirroring the Russian narrative, block & ignore". This infamously culminated in the PropOrNot blacklist which declared the entire anti-imperialist left to be Kremlin shills along w libertarian sites like ZeroHedge
Imagine how much worse its going to be if they do the same coup strategy here though. Its scary to think what the parallel to "banning all Russian language books and TV" would need to be to get people to not talk about the deep state coup and move on with their lives
This is why the idea of going Back To Normal is a fantasy imo. One theory I have is that PTB started spreading the "woke" stuff due to seeing the 5GW potential for online radicalization by enemies and thus pre-emptively "radicalizing" ppl to be pro-regime
Even if Drumpf ends up not getting CIA'd, now that the very interpretation of military and social events itself is becoming the battlefield for the New Cold War, we're in for a very strange ride.... postmodern non-reality turned up to the next level.
Unfortunately, I dont see much any of us can do but build your cognitive nuclear fallout shelter and try to ride out the blasts. Anyway long thread, hope you mfs got something out of it.🙃