.@EssexBarrister I appreciated your contribution yesterday to the discussion on Sky. Wondered if I might offer a few pieces of the puzzle re disproportionality in terms of crime and policing? 1/
Nationally, '...among the broad ethnic groups, Black people were most likely to live in the 10% of neighbourhoods most deprived in relation to crime (27% of this group did so)’ https://t.co/oeV0bY7FaY 2/
ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/uk-population-…
In London (and elsewhere), areas (here boroughs) with more crime are allocated more police officers (TNO = Total Notifiable Offences) 3/
Nationally, Black respondents to the Crime Survey for England & Wales are 2x as likely as White to report high visibility of police foot patrols (28% vs 14%). Source: Table s11 https://t.co/2tQe5m1ZyN 4/
ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/peop…
So Black people are exposed to more policing in part as a function of being more likely to live in more deprived neighbourhoods with higher crime rates which in turn are allocated more police resources. 5/
Higher deprivation is associated with higher rates of murder... https://t.co/OBRsX8BjX5 6/
...gunshot injuries... https://t.co/hnhCejKETY 7/
...and 'gang' areas. https://t.co/N2Pusxu9co 8/
Again in London, analysis by @MOPACLdn in their review of the #gangsmatrix shows that Black people are disproportionately affected by (esp more serious) violence as offenders and victims https://t.co/zJCY6OeJR2 9/
london.gov.uk/sites/default/…
Disproportionality in arrests varies by crime type - here I look at arrests of children by the Met (nb the importance of gender: disproportionality is higher for Black boys than girls) https://t.co/TStbFRpLhI 10/
police-foundation.org.uk/2017/wp-conten…
There are connections between drug markets and violence, most strongly in the case of retail-level crack and heroin dealing. https://t.co/9WUn8PTkPs 11/
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My sense (fr research on gun crime & drugs markets, plus yrs spent around the policing of London), is drugs mkts recreate the structural inequalities of the mainstream econ, w Black youths/young adults disprop occupying the most risky posns (esp retail crack/heroin dealing). 12/
On #stopsearch, the national disproportionality figures (eg 9x) are skewed by the fact that the Met uses S&S at a much higher rate than other forces, and 58% of Black and Black mixed heritage people in E&W live in London. https://t.co/rGonKn9PPM 13/
Still on #stopsearch, this discussion of logical fallacies re police suspicion may be of interest https://t.co/IHSfK0ZU2j 14/
My analysis of Met police #useofforce data suggests frequency of Taser use is disproportionate in line with other police contact (S&S, arrests), but the profile of use is virtually identical betn White & Black subjects https://t.co/eNPquEzyS1 (caveats apply - see the thread) 15/
Incidentally, at the national level the gap betn Black & White respondents' confidence in local policing is betn Black Caribbean & White. Black African respondents express the same (actually v slightly higher) confidence in policing as White. https://t.co/5rutxvX1r0 16/
ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/crime-justice-…
Disproportionate/'over' policing is, I think, both a symptom & a cause of structural inequalities. The challenge that follows is how to respond to disproportionate vulnerability/harm without compounding it. How might an explicit 'do no harm' approach look different? 17/
We can add that 'reasonable suspicion' seems to be applied quite consistently and is not a key driver of disproportionality. #stopsearch https://t.co/1EogjATU5U 18/
Adding a link to this short thread, which notes similar rates of disadvantage away from policing https://t.co/ec0jwCfJIV 19/
Also adding a link to my 2007 analysis of disproportionality in the policing of cannabis possession in the Met https://t.co/WzPOxRsK7v 20/
library.college.police.uk/docs/Policing-…
Evidence showing huge disproportionality among those involved in #CountyLines nationally https://t.co/Id3G7dOUyz 21/
Correction: the previous tweet should have referred to London 22/
Linking to data on drug use from the Adult Psychiatric Morbidity Survey https://t.co/Rwu9OWNthj 23/
And from the same source, evidence showing psychotic illness is 10x higher among Black men than White, while the prevalence of common mental disorders is the same https://t.co/XuYe7H7Kjx 24/
More (national) data on relative homicide risks https://t.co/JHzT1YnYzx 25/
Disproportionality in knife homicide victimisation has got progressively worse over the last 18 years https://t.co/Y9IguAUCSX 26/
Linking to an extract from my analysis of disproportionality for GMP, which suggested lower avg levels of resistance by Asian subjects of #useofforce, and highlighted more frequent references to physique in the case of Black subjects. https://t.co/6zm5BQLl0A 27/
Unemployment disparity among 16-24 year olds, and clear evidence that the economic effects of the pandemic have fallen unequally dramatically compounding inequality. https://t.co/U0RDTCisqN 28/
Homelessness disproportionality 29/
Experimental data highlight the way different denominators offer different 'lenses' - and different assessments of the causes and extent of disproportionality. 30/
More evidence of disproportionality in offending and victimisation relating to violence involving under-25s in London 31/
"According to recent data from the National Crime Agency, Black people accounted for 14 per cent of missing people in England and Wales between 2019 and 2020, over four times (3 per cent) their relative population." Another 4x statistic. https://t.co/r4bKze5e0D 32/
independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-n…
Important evidence on the confidence gap in London https://t.co/EVslWNLSRs 33/
Analysis of disproportionality in youth remand decisions by the @_YJB, controlling for various relevant factors - shows some disproportionality remains for Black children, but that 'borders on statistical significance' https://t.co/GJpi5vM27E 34/
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
'Black Londoners three times more likely to be killed' (2021 figures) https://t.co/cxsFKLAnYa 35/
standard.co.uk/news/london/bl…
Linking to this thread, where I consider the way disproportionality is calculated - specifically the Q of the inclusion of people with Black/mixed heritage in the denominator. https://t.co/SmwM2NZ69X 36/
Evidence of the over-representation of defendants from the most deprived communities in the courts system, esp for theft & robbery https://t.co/omTDk1CZUY 37/
Evidence from DfE and MOJ of the over-representation of Black and Black/White mixed heritage pupils among pupils sentenced or cautioned for an offence - especially for serious violence. https://t.co/LhXSiUe3C1 38/
gov.uk/government/pub…
"Negative pre-existing opinions of the police are found to be predictive of negatively received contact" One implication of which is that two people can be treated the same by police but perceive that treatment differently. https://t.co/1CZeXBYzji 39/
tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.108…
In S London where I Iive, and in NW and E London where I've worked, post war housing estates seem significant in the geography of gangs or similar territorial groups. https://t.co/iTESuzUuMh 40/
Adding a couple of links regarding London's demographics. First, overall children are much more diverse (less White) than the population of London as a whole. https://t.co/H2cJf4vwSM 41/
police-foundation.org.uk/2017/wp-conten…
This is especially clear in the case of Lambeth, where there is a massive shift in ethnicity by age between the teens and twenties https://t.co/jlWSBoCH3R 42/
Research by @sentencingccl looked at the relationship betn characteristics of drugs cases & outcomes. Sex more significant than ethnicity. For Class A, no diffs in immediate custody by ethn; for Class B, Black & esp Asian more likely than White https://t.co/FEhvmioKs4 43/
sentencingcouncil.org.uk/wp-content/upl…
The research also looked at sentence length, and found that males were given longer sentences than females, and Asian offenders were given longer sentences than other ethnicities (no differences between White, Black and other ethnicities). 44/
Hypothesising that being from a visible minority makes it more likely a suspect will be identified, as - where forensics are significant - would being from a group that has higher rates of contact with policing https://t.co/lDvoLxrzLG 45/
As with #stopsearch more generally in the Met (see #18 above), it appears the level of suspicion applied to 'more thorough intimate parts exposed' (MTIP) searches is equally applied across all ethnicities, given the consistent positive outcome rate. https://t.co/D0fbTEbvx8 46/
london.gov.uk/sites/default/…
Home Office analysis of Covid fines during the first lockdown, for the NPCC, showed that disproportionality was lower when the place of residence was accounted for - and disappeared for Londoners. https://t.co/JUiuf3gBQT 47/
'Stop and search data and the effect of geographical differences' https://t.co/TkwvW0LMRe 48/
gov.uk/government/pub…
Potentially related to the disproportionality in people who go missing, as at (32) above https://t.co/eyMmRrJqzK 49/
Disproportionality relating to #stripsearches of children in custody by the Met (NB these are rates per 100k population - I've not yet been able to look at rates for those arrested and taken into custody) https://t.co/ajecFOzybl 50/
Link to reports citing evidence that when contextual factors such as the presence of weapons have been accounted for, Met Police officers equipped with Taser are no more likely to use Taser on Black than White subjects where they use force https://t.co/uSFbYfKDGW 51/
US research examining racial bias in perceptions of a people's size and strength, which could be involved in police #useofforce decisions https://t.co/kIdH2Lrj3I 52/
Important evidence about the uneven geographical distribution of police use of powers - here #stopsearch - which will inevitably interact with the uneven distribution of different ethnic populations. Is that defensible? https://t.co/zbCSao1NaL 53/
Systematic map of research on disparities in policing https://t.co/HuYcpdzCOD 54/
Following (50) above, indicative calculations of custody #stripsearches rates for children, accounting for arrest rates, by gender and ethnicity. Black boys more likely to be strip searched than White boys; opposite for girls. https://t.co/F7mNHhzTnx 55/
MPS data on s136 #mentalhealth detentions by ethnicity indicates some over-representation of Black people, under-representation of Asian people. https://t.co/CU6kJVcJks 56/
met.police.uk/SysSiteAssets/…
From the same report, much greater Black disproportionality is evident for s135 warrants - reasons 'unknown'. 57/
Here I look at disproportionality in Taser/CED use where force was used by Taser equipped officers and the subject was perceived to have mental health issues #useofforce https://t.co/OywQ1W1yD1 58/
Data from a pilot recording the ethnicity of drivers stopped by the Met Police. https://t.co/Nwj1ngaeFC 59/
