THREAD. Let’s sum up what we know about Russian military buildup as of now.
Since March, Russia increased its military presence near Ukraine’s borders & inside occupied Crimea. The number of troops is over 80,000 split between Voronezh & Rostov Oblasts in Russia & Crimea. Russia’s assets in Donbas include 28,000 militants and 2,000 Russian instructors.
On April 16, Russia closed the Kerch Strait for Ukrainian military ships, de facto for all ships, chocking Ukraine port cities of Mariupol & Berdiansk. 15 Russian ships from the Caspian Sea were also moved into the Black Sea region for “military drills.”
Russia moved 50 military jets to Crimea & has Iskander short-range ballistic missile systems capable of neutralizing anti-aircraft defenses, pointed at Ukraine. We’re talking about ground forces, strategic missile forces, aviation, intelligence units, military engineering units.
Surprisingly, #Ukraine has been doing very well in this situation. Ukraine has actively sought foreign assistance, trying to make all-out war too costly for #Putin. Zelensky has met Erdogan, Macron, Skyped Merkel, talked to Biden and is forcing them to give Ukraine #NATO MAP.
Kyiv officials have issued a map of city’s bomb shelters (first time since 2015). The city is 267-kilometres south of Russia. Western city Ternopil issued the creation of local volunteer battalions. National Guard is performing drills, Ukrainian armed forces are moving equipment
The military aspect is described by @TarasChmut - “Russia is ready for war, the question is at what price, with what resources & tasks, If the task is to start a war, they’re ready, if the task is to conquer Donbas, also yes, if the task is to conquer Ukraine, then obviously no.”
To sum up: - There’s no panic in Ukraine - Ukraine doesn’t want a war & Zelensky is doing everything he can to avoid it. - Ukraine is better equipped today, than in 2014, yet still not enough. - Will a war happen depends on ONE man. - Will it achieve any goal, except deaths, no.
