Every few months, we hear about anew variant Most turn out to not be much Well, unfortunately, there's a new variant B.1.1.529 that is concerning What do we know so far? A few things but not a lot Reminder: when it comes to variants, we focus on three things Short thread
What are those three to pay attention to? Is it more transmissible than current strain (Delta)? Does it cause more severe disease? And does have it more immune escape (will it render prior infections or vaccines less effective)? So lets talk quickly about what we know 2/5
On transmissibility, data look worrisome It has taken off quickly in South Africa This graphs look concerning But with case numbers in SA low right now, rapid takeover could be driven in part by other factors So yes, am worried about transmissibility. But not sure 3/5
The next issue is whether it causes more severe disease We have no idea Too early to tell -- but obviously needs to be tracked closely Third issue is around immune escape Do antibodies generated by our immune system have a harder to neutralizing it? 4/5
And what about T-cells and their ability to manage infections? Short answer? We don't know but there is at least some reason for concern There are a series of mutations in key regions that may impact effectiveness of our vaccines Render vaccines useless? No. Super unlikely
So let's track this closely We'll know more in coming days to weeks There will be those who will spread fear -- and those who will downplay it Please ignore both groups This variant is concerning We should ramp up testing (our PCR tests will still work) 6/7
In fact our PCR test should help us track B.1.1.529 when it arrives here in the US And it surely will arrive here So stay vigilant Get vaccinated, boosted Get the world vaccinated And let's get more data to better understand what (if anything) we need to do differently End
