The Preview: GW4 - A thread Greetings everyone. Welcome to my latest preview thread where I address the most common FPL dilemmas before GW4: Feel free to like and share if you find it to be helpful ❤️
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In this article, I share my own team and transfers for GW4: 👀👇🏻
fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/team-reveal-bi…
Q) Is Rodrigo the real deal? Rodrigo has firmly cemented himself as the budget midfielder of choice along with Martinelli. In terms of underlying statistics, Rodrigo has been head and shoulders above the other midfielders and is making a mockery out of his price tag...
... In the first three GWs, he is ranked first for shots, shots in the box, non-penalty xG and second for big chance involvements. Having said that, Rodrigo has overperformed on his statistics - so far he has five goal involvements from a xGi of 2.2. However, he remains a...
... good pick regardless simply because his underlying statistics are still better than those of the other midfielders. I think the concerns regarding his minutes once Sinisterra and Bamford are back are widely misplaced as well - there's possibly no way that Jesse Marsch...
... can drop Rodrigo in this form. By his own admission, Rodrigo is an integral part of the team: "He’s been massive. He's been all in, he's been getting better every day, every week. He's committed at the highest level. He was the captain today, rightfully so. I think...
... he's potentially in the form of his life. He’s adapted and risen to the challenge in difficult moments, so I’m really happy with him." Even if at some point, Marsch does decide to drop him it would come at a point when most managers would likely Wildcard around Gameweek 9...
... anyway so I don't think Rodrigo's minutes in the immediate term should be in doubt. Leeds face Everton, Brentford and Nottingham between Gameweek 5-7 which is a run where Rodrigo could do really well in. I think Rodrigo is a good buy keeping in mind those fixtures...
... However, I wouldn't necessarily go out of the way to buy him this Gameweek. Leeds have historically struggled in the past against Brighton under Potter - scoring just once in their previous four games against them. Further, Brighton have conceded the fewest number of...
... big chances this season so this will not be an easy game for Leeds.
Q) Is it worth persisting with the Liverpool defence? Most big chances conceded in the first 3 GWs: Leicester 10 West Ham 10 Newcastle 10 Liverpool 9! Fulham 9 This does not make for good reading if you own double Liverpool defence.
I am personally happy to keep the faith with Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m) despite Liverpool's poor start to the season. He is ranked first among defenders for chances created, big chance involvements, expected assists (xA), expected goal involvement (xGi) and touches in the...
... final third so the thought of not owning him hasn't remotely crossed my mind. I'm willing to treat him like an attacker till the defence sorts itself out. Andy Robertson (£6.9m) is becoming more of a concern though as his underlying numbers have been poor and paying the...
... premium for someone who is not showing neither defensive solidity nor attacking threat is becoming hard to justify. He’s been subbed for Tsimikas in the past couple of matches too – which is a bit of a red flag considering that Robertson rarely got subbed last season...
... I expect Robertson to play against Bournemouth but he could be at risk of rotation in midweek. I would keep him against Bournemouth – Bournemouth are joint bottom for big chances created this season and the bookmakers...
... have rated Liverpool as the most likely team to keep a clean sheet this week.
Q) Is it worth selling a Man City defender for Perisic this week? I personally would if I had the choice. I expect both Perisic and the Man City defenders to miss one of the next three games with the midweek fixture congestion coming up but I believe Perisic’s upside is big...
... enough to chase even if it is for the short term – as most managers are likely to Wildcard after four or five Gameweeks anyway. "I have seen the Perisic I know from Inter. For us he is very important because he has great experience. For Sessegnon, who is playing...
... well this season it is very very important to have a player in front of you like Ivan." These quotes from Conte basically imply that Perisic will start in Gameweek 4. I personally believe that Perisic is a 15 pointer waiting to happen when he starts. No defender in...
... the Serie A had a better xGi per 90 than Perisic under Conte in 20/21 - his xGi per 90 of 0.44 was seriously impressive. We saw last season that both Doherty and Reguilón were second and third for xGi per 90 after Trent Alexander Arnold since the time Conte took over...
... No defender has been given a better chance of scoring this week by the bookmakers as well. Further, I highlight a defensive weakness that Perisic seems well suited to exploit: (read below)
Chances conceded on the right flank in the first three Gameweeks: Nottingham Forest 23! Bournemouth 13 West Ham 13 Villa 13 Leeds 12 If these stats are anything to go by, then Perisic could have a field day in Gameweek 4.
Q) In this section, I highlight the importance of saving a transfer this week. As long as you have the obvious picks in the game, I think saving a transfer this week could be very useful. If there is no obvious transfer that stands out in your team, I would recommend saving...
... your transfer as I believe that you will be in a much better position to tackle the fixture congestion and any possible midweek chaos in Gameweek 5 with two free transfers in hand.
Q) Is it worth persisting with the Chelsea defence? I'm not too concerned about Reece James (£6.1m) and Marc Cucurella (£5.1m). No team has created fewer big chances or conceded more big chances than Leicester this season so I believe Chelsea should have enough to come out...
... on top despite the absence of Koulibaly. In the three games that Leicester have played so far, they have accumulated 0.5, 0.6 and 0.3 xG respectively and are massively struggling for creativity. There is every chance that James and Cucurella come good this week.
Q) What to do with Ward and Iversen? If I had Ward & Iversen, I'd look to sell Iversen - even if for a hit. Iversen delivered a match winning performance in the EFL Cup & there are a growing number of voices among the Leicester supporters asking for his inclusion as the first...
... choice keeper. Ward has been very poor so far - conceding 8 goals from a xGc of 4.3 this season. Rodgers has been very clear that Ward is going to be first choice in the past though - so who gets to play now is still up in the air. Fact of the matter is that no matter...
... who plays, Leicester have a dreadful run of fixtures coming up - the Foxes are due to play Chelsea, Man United, Brighton, Aston Villa and Spurs in the next five. I simply see no clean sheets there - so I would recommend all Ward + Iversen owners to cut their losses and...
... spend more on their keepers. Sánchez for £4.5m is the one I’d look at as the replacement as he is likely to present terrific value. He's playing for a Brighton side that have started the season really strongly. No team has conceded fewer big chances than Brighton.
What I also like about Sánchez is that two of Brighton's midfielders are playing as wing-backs which means that there aren't too many contestants he is competing with when it comes to bonus points. The good thing from a FPL point of view is that Brighton have a really...
... strong fixture run to come - the Seagulls play Leeds, Fulham, Leicester, Bournemouth and Crystal Palace in their next five.
Q) What to do with Mount? If you don’t have triple Liverpool in your squad, I would swap to Luis Diaz as I expect Liverpool to bounce back this week. If you already do, then I guess you can afford to save the transfer and possibly move to Rodrigo next week if Mount fails...
... to impress again. So far his attacking numbers have been abysmal but Leicester are top for big chances conceded this season so you can afford to give him one last chance.
Q) Is it worth swapping from Haaland to Kane? If anyone has two free transfers and is looking to sell Haaland for Kane before GW4, it’s a move I wouldn’t recommend: *Haaland has 9 big chance involvements this season, Kane has 6
*Haaland has a 65% chance of scoring, Kane 50% according to the odds *Man City are 20% more likely than Spurs to score 2 or more goals It's a move that may make more sense in the coming GWs due to Haaland's rotation risk with midweek fixtures but this is not the time to do it.
Q) Is it too early to Wildcard in GW4? I feel as if most talks of an early Wildcard are premature. Obviously this is team dependent but I believe most teams have a solid core - with the obvious picks doing really well. Any fires can be sorted with a hit or two...
... At this point, I don't think that your Wildcard team would look much different from the original so there is little value addition in Wildcarding right now! The template is very strong at the minute and we need more information to go differently. I love an early Wildcard...
... myself but I don't see enough opportunities available right now.
Here is my Fantasy5 team. 4 of my 5 picks are midfielders this week! I’ve selected Son despite his poor form – I highlighted Forest’s weakness down their right flank which can work in his favour. Jorginho is on penalties and only needs a goal to beat his points target.
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That brings me to the end of my thread. Kindly like and retweet it if you can! Also do share your feedback if possible. THANK YOU! ❤️
